WASHINGTON – Foreign policy experts assert that Donald Trump could swiftly secure a Gaza ceasefire if elected – but only by directly pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political survival depends on U.S. support. The assessment comes as Trump claims he’d “end the war in 24 hours.”
“Netanyahu’s coalition collapses without U.S. weapons and diplomatic cover,” explained Aaron David Miller, former Middle East negotiator and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “One stern phone call threatening to suspend arms shipments would force immediate negotiations.” Trump made the ceasefire pledge during Tuesday’s rally but provided no details.
Key Dynamics:
- Netanyahu’s Dependency: 68% of Israel’s arms imports come from the U.S. ($3.8 billion/year)
- Political Vulnerability: Netanyahu’s governing coalition holds just 59/120 Knesset seats
- Trump’s Leverage:
- Could freeze F-35 deliveries (24 pending)
- Withdraw UN Security Council veto protection
- Halt intelligence sharing
Obstacles:
- Far-Right Pressure: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to topple government if “war goals abandoned”
- Hamas Demands: Insists on permanent ceasefire before hostage releases
- Trump’s Record: 2020 Abraham Accords avoided Palestinian issues
“Trump understands transactional politics,” said Crisis Group’s Mairav Zonszein. “His message must be: ‘Bibi, you take the deal, or I walk away.’ Anything less fails.”
The White House dismissed Trump’s claim as “dangerous fantasy,” noting Biden’s June ceasefire proposal remains stalled after Netanyahu’s “partial acceptance” drew cabinet rebellions. Gaza’s death toll passed 57,762 (according to Aljazeera) this week amid renewed fighting.
